Research

My research is in population biology, mathematical modelling, evolutionary epidemiology, species range shifts, infectious diseases and public health.

For my publications, see Google Scholar.

When financially possible, our publications are open access. If you can’t access a publication, please email me. Below are links to publications that may be more difficult to access. You might also search MedRxiv and BioRxiv for author-typeset copies of the publications.

• When populations move north but disease moves south: counterintuitive impacts of climate change on disease spread

COVID-19

We worked during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide modelling support to the emergency response. Not everything we did will end-up being published, so I will archive some of this below.

• A challenging aspect of modelling COVID-19 in Newfoundland and Labrador was needing a modelling framework that was appropriate to answer public health questions when the importation risk was high, but there were no community cases. I am happy with what we came up with, and it is described here: Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

• I worked with Steve Walker to use McMasterPandemic to forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations in Newfoundland and Labrador. Thanks to the authors of this software. (Highlighted in the New York Times)

• Some of our early work: Newfoundland and Labrador’s travel restrictions. Related interview with CBC On The Go

• “The elimination strategy is most likely appropriate in specific locations and for specific periods of time as the costs and benefits of the strategy likely depend on complex interactions between regional characteristics, public health policy, community behavioural responses, and variant epidemiological characteristics.” — Hurford et al. 2023. Here’s a few more key pieces on that same point:

  • Travel restrictions and the Omicron variant. See also British Medical Journal article by Andrew Silver.

  • It is not realistic to eliminate COVID-19 in Newfoundland and Labrador. Here’s why. This article is led by Dr. Maria Martignoni. For methods, see here.

• Endemicity: What’s next? - thanks to the Fields Institute for the invite!

• A fun interview about why mathematical modelling matters.

• Great article by Sarah Smellie: Omicron making like difficult for mathematicians trying to track COVID-19.

• Over to you, the next generation! Here are 10 steps to modelling COVID-19 for science majors